Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.015367 0.017394 0.019605 0.022198 0.025161 0.028444 0.032363
2024-11-03 0.012515 0.015351 0.018719 0.023027 0.028407 0.034930 0.043475
2024-11-10 0.010926 0.014137 0.018172 0.023641 0.030900 0.040262 0.053341
2024-11-17 0.009787 0.013226 0.017752 0.024186 0.033166 0.045358 0.063338
2024-11-24 0.008635 0.012104 0.016852 0.023881 0.034125 0.048661 0.071124
2024-12-01 0.007738 0.011205 0.016117 0.023658 0.035079 0.051945 0.079140
2024-12-08 0.007008 0.010450 0.015482 0.023466 0.035993 0.055182 0.087359
2024-12-15 0.006587 0.010099 0.015387 0.024048 0.038100 0.060396 0.099222
2024-12-22 0.006033 0.009483 0.014820 0.023810 0.038850 0.063487 0.107900
2024-12-29 0.005770 0.009295 0.014892 0.024589 0.041312 0.069591 0.122363
2025-01-05 0.005222 0.008592 0.014067 0.023789 0.041001 0.070933 0.128516
2025-01-12 0.004822 0.008097 0.013538 0.023430 0.041403 0.073519 0.137178
2025-01-19 0.004362 0.007471 0.012748 0.022565 0.040852 0.074413 0.142907
2025-01-26 0.004224 0.007392 0.012896 0.023395 0.043500 0.081492 0.161581
2025-02-02 0.004065 0.007260 0.012935 0.024021 0.045813 0.088161 0.180243
2025-02-09 0.003908 0.007118 0.012939 0.024575 0.048032 0.094866 0.199813
2025-02-16 0.003650 0.006763 0.012519 0.024265 0.048491 0.098056 0.212206
2025-02-23 0.003425 0.006455 0.012160 0.024038 0.049086 0.101574 0.225746
2025-03-02 0.003224 0.006175 0.011833 0.023843 0.049722 0.105233 0.240048
2025-03-09 0.003127 0.006093 0.011885 0.024435 0.052095 0.112905 0.264750
2025-03-16 0.002948 0.005832 0.011558 0.024193 0.052614 0.116491 0.280043
2025-03-23 0.002887 0.005806 0.011706 0.024985 0.055526 0.125845 0.310904
2025-03-30 0.002675 0.005452 0.011146 0.024171 0.054670 0.126291 0.319061